Some of the EU countries that are among the loudest opponents to the bloc’s sanctions against Russia have experienced the lowest export losses, according to a report released Wednesday.
Greece and Slovenia have been among those most vocal in calling for the EU to lift sanctions. But according to the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies Geneva report, commissioned by Rasmussen Global. Greece actually increased exports to Russia in some industries, as did Sweden and Luxembourg. Slovenia was the least affected of any EU member country, followed by Luxembourg, Romania and the U.K.
Italy, another country whose politicians have stated they are in favor of removing sanctions, is near the top of the list of countries impacted in absolute terms. But it isn’t suffering significant loss in real terms because only a fraction of its exports are destined for Russia, the institute said.
On the other end of the scale, some of the staunchest defenders of Brussels’ stance — Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland — were among the countries suffering the most harm from the sanctions, as well as Moscow’s retaliatory trade embargo, which banned most EU food imports.
In some cases, harm did correlate with disapproval. Germany suffered the largest absolute loss, followed by France. Politicians from both countries have spoken out in favor of relaxing sanctions.
Overall, the EU has been resilient, according to the report’s authors. In 2014, EU exports to Russia fell by 12.1 percent, and Russian exports to the bloc dropped by 13.5 percent, while trade value fell from €326 billion to €285 billion. However, the EU has regained ground as a result of financial support for affected industries and access to alternate markets for exports, as well as a global fall in oil prices.
While the sanctions have not succeeded in forcing Moscow to leave Ukraine, the authors of the report say they have worked to signal to Russia and the world the consequences “of violating norms about territorial integrity.”
The institute warns the EU against lifting sanctions unless Russia makes political concessions, because doing so would reduce leverage in the future and call into question “global commitment to international norms, first and foremost the inviolability of sovereign territory.”
Removing sanctions prematurely could also compromise the international community’s ability to respond to future threats through sanctions, which the report said, “for better or worse, have become the instrument of choice for many policy-makers in recent years.”
Rasmussen Global is a consultancy run by former Secretary General of NATO and former Prime Minister of Denmark Anders Fogh Rasmussen, who currently advises Ukraine’s government.