SYDNEY — For decades, republicans Down Under have been betting on a funeral.
Even the most avowed anti-monarchists in Australia and New Zealand long acknowledged, at least privately, that cutting ties with Britain was on hold as long as Queen Elizabeth II was alive.
But the world’s most macabre waiting game may be coming to an end — as the U.K.’s decision to leave the European Union gives republicans in the two countries reason to hope for a Brexit of their own.
In New Zealand, Labour Party leader Jacinda Ardern — neck-and-neck in the race to become the country’s prime minister after its September 23 election — declared earlier this month she was in favor of cutting ties with the monarchy and called for a debate on getting rid of Elizabeth as head of state.
“I am a republican,” she told the Times. “It’s certainly not about my view of the monarchy but my view of New Zealand’s place in the world and carving out our own future. So that is what drives my sentiment.”
Australia’s current prime minister, Malcolm Turnbull, a former chair of the Australian Republican Movement, has said he won’t push for a referendum during the queen’s lifetime, but opposition leader Bill Shorten, on track to win a federal election due between late 2018 and early 2019, in July promised to hold a vote during his first term in office. All of Australia’s state and territory leaders also back a republic.
51 percent want an Australian head of state while 38 percent back the monarchy.
“We could wait for the queen to die, and as the world gathers to say farewell, who slips out the back? Australia,” said Peter FitzSimons, the chairman of the Australian Republican Movement, capturing the growing mood in the country. “Or we could do this while the queen’s still young enough to hand us the keys. We could rise as one, give her a thunderous standing ovation, and say: ‘Your majesty, thank you, we will take it from here.'”
While Australians voted to remain a constitutional monarchy in a 1999 referendum, most now support a republic.
In a poll conducted in August by Newspoll for newspaper the Australian, 51 percent wanted an Australian head of state, 38 percent backed the monarchy and 11 percent were undecided. In the event Prince Charles becomes king, 55 percent said they wanted a republic.
One development that’s tipped things in favor of republicans: Brexit.
The U.K.’s vote to leave the EU whipped up anti-monarchist sentiment; in the first three days after the Brexit vote last June, the Australian Republican Movement reported a 20-fold increase in membership requests. The upward trend has continued, said FitzSimons, an Australian writer, media personality and ex-rugby player.
Bill Shorten, leader of the Australian Labor Party | Scott Barbour/Getty Images
“Membership has increased, and so have donations,” he said. “You have this ludicrous situation where Great Britain is becoming Little Britain. I note with Brexit there’s some possibility that Scotland will go their own way … Well, it’s one thing to be aligned with Great Britain, but with Little Britain? Would it not be pathetic for Australia to be clinging to the ankles of what’s left?”
Queen Elizabeth II is the head of state in the constitutional monarchy of Australia. Though the role is largely symbolic, her representative, the governor general, has “reserve” powers to appoint prime ministers when elections result in hung parliaments, to dismiss the country’s leader in the event of a “no confidence” vote, and to refuse to dissolve the House of Representatives against ministerial advice. These powers have been used four times, most controversially and recently in 1975, when Governor General Sir John Kerr fired Prime Minister Gough Whitlam.
Monarchists in Australia and New Zealand are not ready to give up the fight. They argue the younger generation of royals, with their growing families and goodwill trips Down Under, have boosted support for the status quo and soothed the prospect of King Charles.
Philip Benwell, the national chairman of the Australian Monarchists’ League, acknowledged support for a republic is likely to go up if Charles takes the throne, but said a referendum “would still fail, because people would realize that it’s the system that matters, not necessarily the person that is the head of state.”
Benwell added: “There is tremendous interest and confidence in the younger royals, and they have established a close rapport with the Australian people.”
Likewise, Sean Palmer, chairman of Monarchy NZ, said “personal popularity is always an element” when it comes to support for the monarchy.
Prince William at the Playford Civic Centre in the Adelaide suburb of Elizabeth, in 2014 | Pool photo by David Gray/Getty Images
“The queen’s popularity has been significant, but these things ebb and flow,” Palmer said. “Sure, people think the queen is doing a wonderful job, and they may be asking whether the next sovereign will do a wonderful job. But when the next sovereign is on the throne, people may say ‘well, we’re looking forward to William and George.'”
Republicans counter that being a fan of the young royals does not equate to support for a monarchy.
Australia’s republican prime minister made the point in a tweet after a meeting with the queen in July. “Although I am a republican, I am also an Elizabethan,” he wrote.
“Following the royal family and delighting in Prince George having his first day of school — that’s possible while also thinking Australia should be a republic,” FitzSimons said.
Although I am a Republican, I am also an Elizabethan. It was an honour to meet Her Majesty today at Buckingham Palace. pic.twitter.com/2oMYjEu0ww
— Malcolm Turnbull (@TurnbullMalcolm) July 11, 2017
Across the Tasman Sea in New Zealand, Labour leader Ardern acknowledged the queen’s popularity would make for a contentious debate, but said that wasn’t a reason not to have one. “No matter when you have the conversation, there’s a knock-on effect,” she said. “There’s a much-loved monarch who will be affected by that decision,” she said.
Like its Australian sister movement, New Zealand republicans are sick of being in a holding pattern.
“We think it’s morbid to say we’re going to wait till someone dies,” said Savage (who has one name), the chair of the New Zealand Republic group. “Wouldn’t it be better to make the change and say farewell, rather than wait for her to either become infirm or die?”