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By ZOYA SHEFTALOVICH, CRISTIANO LIMA AND ZACH STANTON
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GOOD MORNING and welcome to POLITICO’s Westeros Playbook, the must-read guide to what’s happening on the Continent. As the battle for the Iron Throne (and for the living) heats up, here’s everything you need to know to get you up to speed.
WHEN IN WINTERFELL
SNOW’S SUPPORT MELTING? Jon Snow is king in the North. But in the wake of his surprise endorsement of Daenerys Targaryen’s claim to the Iron Throne, there’s a real question as to whether he can remain in power. Prior to his trip to Dragonstone — ostensibly to secure an arms deal — Northern leaders warned they’d never accept a Targaryen as their ruler. Bending the knee without consulting the members of his Northern governing coalition will not play well among the folks who matter. And news that Snow’s relationship with the Mother of Dragons may be more than just professional will only underline those concerns.
Who to watch … In her short time on the scene, Lady Lyanna Mormont has won a reputation as a precocious straight-shooter. Rumor has it she’s less than pleased with Snow bending the knee. If she withdraws her support, he’s in trouble.
HALFMAN HALF A-GAZING: Another prominent player casting a critical eye on the new Jon-Dany pairing is Hand of the Queen Tyrion Lannister, who was spotted leering at the pair during their first romantic encounter. The long glance, analysts say, could signal concern for whether the entanglement will cloud the queen’s judgment — or it could signal the Halfman has himself fallen fully in love. Either way, the developments could further muddle the already complicated relationship for the Targaryen-Lannister duo.
BUMP WATCH: Daenerys Targaryen may think dragons are the only children she will ever have, but speculation is building that her relationship with Snow may result in a royal baby. Dany has told close advisers she is infertile as a result of an ill-fated blood magic pact she struck with Mirri Maz Duur in an attempt to save then-husband Khal Drogo. But in the words of Snow, has it occurred to her the Essos maegi might not have been a reliable source of information?
Backstory: Dany sought to cure Drogo from an infected wound by striking a deal with Duur. Told that “only death could pay for life,” the khaleesi agreed, thinking Duur was referring to Drogo’s steed. But it turned out the life Duur was referring to was Dany’s unborn baby Rhaego. And while the maegi technically held up her end of the bargain — the khal survived — it was a poisoned chalice, with Drogo left in a vegetative state. When Dany asked Durr when Drogo would return to his old self, the maegi responded: “When the sun rises in the west and sets in the east, when the seas go dry and mountains blow in the wind like leaves.” Dany took that to be a fancy way of saying “never,” and believed it to also have been the end of the Targaryen line.
Why’s that? Playbook hears there was more to Duur’s prophecy. According to our sources, it continued thusly: “When your womb quickens again and you bear a living child. Then he will return, and not before.” That had Dany believing she was infertile — particularly after she smothered the khal herself. But it’s now fueling rumors that Westeros could soon be welcoming a new prince — and perhaps even an old king.
WHO’S JONNY? Here’s the hottest rumor in town: Jon Snow isn’t such a bastard after all. According to our sources, he’s actually the son of Rhaegar Targaryen (Daenerys’ brother) and Lyanna Stark (Eddard “Ned” Stark’s sister) — making him Dany’s nephew. If confirmed, that would make Snow — or should we say Aegon Targaryen — the rightful heir to the Iron Throne. What will his auntie-slash-lover think of that?
So who knows the secret? Playbook can’t reveal our sources, but we hear Bran “The Three-Eyed Raven” Stark and Snow’s bestie Samwell Tarly may be the only two who know the true story of “the bastard’s” parentage. The key question: How will Snow’s supporters in the North react?
SPEAKING OF WHICH … IF SNOW FALLS, WHO RULES THE NORTH? It’s impossible to overstate just how beloved Sansa Stark is in the North. And her image as the people’s princess has evolved into something more. She has ruled in Snow’s stead while he’s been off galavanting with the Mother of Dragons — and she’s done a remarkable job. Her cunning alliance with the Vale saved the North, overthrew Ramsay Bolton and retook Winterfell — she won the battle, not Jon. And now that she has dispensed with Littlefinger (more on that below), she’s brought the Vale into her coalition. Sansa has the full support of the Northern families. And she’s a savvy player who managed years of palace intrigue in King’s Landing. She’s learned from the best, and it shows.
Plus, there’s this whole ‘legitimacy’ thing … Unlike Snow, Sansa *is* Ned Stark’s child — something that will matter all the more if it comes out that he is actually a Targaryen. If that’s known, and if Northerners truly are angry about him bending the knee, look for Sansa to challenge his rule.
But but but … Close Westeros-watchers will recall that years ago, Greatjon Umber (now deceased) declared his loyalty to King Robb Stark (now also deceased) after noting “it was the dragons” the Northerners bowed to, “and now the dragons are dead.” So perhaps all hope is not lost for the half-dragon half-Stark and his queen — if the Northerners bowed to dragons before, they could do it again.
MAESTER OF NONE: Another key player to watch in Winterfell is Samwell Tarly. The lovable sidekick may have abandoned his pursuit of his maester chains, but he could play a key role in the wars to come. Sam has already figured out dragonglass can kill the White Walkers and Dragonstone has no shortage of the rare material — two key discoveries that will aid the living in their battle against the undead. What else will he uncover, and how will it contribute to further face-offs?
LITTLEFINGER, BIG COMEUPPANCE: He tried to divide and conquer, but Petyr “Littlefinger” Baelish forgot blood was thicker than water. The ex-lord protector of the Vale came to an end at Winterfell after the Stark sisters did what their mother Catelyn and aunt Lysa couldn’t: uniting to take him down. To add insult to Littlefinger’s fatal injuries, Arya Stark dispatched him with his own Valyrian steel dagger — which we hear could have a significant role to play in the battles ahead.
SLAVES TO LOVE: And finally to everybody’s favorite couple, Unsullied army chief Grey Worm and Dany’s handmaiden, adviser and linguist Missandei. They’re still together and en route to White Harbour, from where they’ll travel to Winterfell with Jon Snow and Dany. But can the commander of the warrior-eunuchs of Astapor possibly survive the battle against the Night King and live happily ever after with his improbable lover? Playbook can only hope.
TALES FROM THE WALL
MIGRATION CRISIS: Many a country has tried to build a wall to keep migrants out. But as the Night’s Watch discovered, bricks and ice can only do so much in the face of thousands of desperate refugees fleeing war and certain undeath — not to mention an ice dragon. In the end, perhaps channeling a leader from another continent, Jon Snow let the Wildlings in.
Is this good politics? Depends on whom you ask. Northerners greeted the caravan with suspicion. But those who’ve worked with the Wildlings/Free Folk (choose your preferred term) have generally come away with their prejudices changed. An x-factor here: The North’s strong tribalism — separatist tendencies, anyone? — make this a heavy lift for many key players and raise the risks of fracturing Snow’s ruling coalition.
THIS IS A DRAG: Playbook guesses we should have seen this one coming, given the fate of his namesake Viserys: The Night King fatally speared Viserion the dragon during the ill-fated Snow-led expedition beyond the wall. Bad news: It seems he didn’t stay dead, and was resurrected by the Night King, morphing into an ice dragon. Good news: This just got interesting. What will Viserion do when he comes face to face with his brothers and mom? Could Bran finally get back to his roots and warg into a dragon? Watch this space.
SPOTTED — NIGHT KING’S LANDING: Wall insiders spotted Viserion, the Night King, his Cabinet of White Walkers and several thousand undead supporters passing through the barrier, a huge chunk of which was taken down by the dragon with its new blue fire. Sources familiar with the Night King’s plans expect him to march his army toward Winterfell in what some onlookers are already dubbing the next Battle for the Dawn. But what does the Night King really want? Is it to exterminate the living? Does he plan to usher in a new Long Night? Or is it something more cryptic, potentially lying beneath Winterfell? We’ll be watching closely for insights into his thinking.
THRONE OF PERDITION
CERSEI YOU LATER … She may be pregnant with twin brother Jaime’s fourth child (though Joffrey, Myrcella and Tommen have all met untimely ends), but Cersei Lannister wasn’t taking parental leave from her scheming and plotting. She pledged to put aside her differences with Daenerys to fight in the Great War, but then revealed to Jaime that she was actually planning a double crossing (more on that below). Alas, the proud papa wasn’t interested in playing games, and walked out on Cersei and headed north. Is his plan to forewarn Daenerys and Jon Snow about Cercei’s ploy? Will his sister-slash-baby-mama let him walk, or send the Mountain in hot pursuit? Hard to tell.
Dead woman walking? Dany isn’t the only queen with prophesy problems — and Cersei’s pregnancy, if confirmed, could spell the beginning of the end for the current occupant of the Iron Throne.
DEFICIT WATCH: As the beloved and belated Oberyn Martell once told us, it’s not just the Lannisters who pay their debts. The crown, which has long struggled to balance its books (shout out to the late King Robert Baratheon and his many, many companions), remains immensely indebted to the Iron Bank of Braavos. And Cersei is poised to drive up the deficit even further, striking a deal with the bank for a new loan that allowed her to hire Golden Company mercenaries to supplement the Lannister forces. The move could spell trouble for the queen should the Lannisters, for once, fail to pay their debts. (A source close to Cersei — who is definitely not Qyburn — says the queen remains confident the loans will be paid in full.)
NO JOY FOR THE GREYJOYS
HOT-AIR BALON: Not for the first time — but certainly for the last — Balon Greyjoy’s plans were all talk. The deceased Iron Islands chief wanted son Theon to take his seat on the Salt Throne. But Theon, a POW whose scars from his time on the mainland make him a less-than-ideal ruler, turned down the throne and supported sister Yara’s bid for the position. In the end, his backing didn’t matter: She was bested by uncle Euron, whose charisma overcame concerns both about his inexperience and accusations of carpetbagging among voters in the kingsmoot.
Where are they now? Yara hasn’t been seen since her uncle waged a surprise siege on her ship and took her prisoner. Meanwhile, Theon was last spotted at Dragonstone huddling on the beach with a small group of supporters, plotting a rescue mission.
LIONS AND KRAKENS AND SELLSWORDS, OH MY: Queen Cersei Lannister dispatched Euron to Essos to pick up the mercenary Gold Company fighters. Sources close to the Red Keep say Cersei believes Euron wants to marry her and thinks she can control him — just like she controlled the last three kings. But Salt Throne insiders know Euron wants only power — marriage or not. And with Cersei forced to rely on him for an army, she isn’t exactly negotiating from a position of strength.
I’M A FREY-ED NOT
SO LONG TO THE HOUSE OF FREY: Winter came for the Freys — or at least Arya Stark did, enacting revenge on all the male members of the not-so-noble house, whose patriarch Walder orchestrated the Red Wedding massacre.
Reminder: Walder Frey conspired with Tywin Lannister and Lord Roose Bolton to slay King Robb, his pregnant wife Queen Talisa, his mother Lady Catelyn and most of his bannermen and men-at-arms during the marriage feast of Robb’s uncle Edmure Tully and Walder’s daughter Roslin Frey. Arya Stark was just outside his castle walls during the massacre, which occurred after Walder extended guest right to the Starks by eating salt and bread from the same bowl as his guests — a big no no, as far as the Gods are concerned.
Arya ready for this: After dispatching Walder (though not before feeding him a pie made of his sons Lothar and Black Walder), the Starks’ youngest daughter donned his face, poisoned his wine, then served it at a feast for all the Frey men at The Twins — the two castles on either side of the Crossing, the only bridge across the Green Fork of the Trident for miles. As the old saying goes, what goes around comes around.
WHAT’S NEXT FOR ARYA: Several key players remain on Arya’s list (of people she means to kill), namely: Queen Cersei, the Mountain and potentially even the Hound — though the two developed a complicated camaraderie years ago during their travels on the King’s Road. Will Arya still look to settle the score with the younger Clegane? Will she stay in Winterfell indefinitely, or march south to exact revenge on Cersei and her undead bodyguard?
REUNION WATCH
HERE ARE A FEW MORE run-ins to watch for as some of our favorite Westerosis are expected to come face-to-face again in coming weeks …
Brotherly love: The Hound publicly threatened to end his older brother, the Mountain, during their encounter at the Dragonpit in King’s Landing. Will they finally settle the score (perhaps in some sort of battle or bowl)?
Stick it with the pointy end: Arya and Jon cherished their relationship as Stark family misfits before parting ways years back. With both returning to their childhood home after years of separate hardships, will that bond still be there?
Will they or won’t they I: Sources say Arya and Gendry, the bastard son of the late King Robert Baratheon, sparked romance rumors during their past travels. Now that both are in the North, will the Stark-Baratheon sparks be rekindled?
Will they or won’t they II: Jaime and Brienne of Tarth share a rare connection, but their alliances have kept them at (a handless) arm’s length. Now that their paths are converging, will the two embrace their bond? And if so, how will Brienne-admiring Wildling leader Tormund Giantsbane react?
Family ties: Ser Jorah, forsaken by his father (and former Night’s Watch commander) Jeor Mormont years back, could be reunited in Winterfell with his kin, Lyanna Mormont, as well as his family’s ancestral sword, Longclaw — now wielded by Jon.
Come at me bro: The Night King has stared down both Jon and Bran after two decisive battle victories for the army of the dead. Who will win out the next time they come face to face?
THIS PLAYBOOK COULDN’T HAPPEN WITHOUT … “Game of Thrones” author George R. R. Martin and HBO, which brought his work to the small screen.
FOR MORE: Head to HBO’s official Game of Thrones website.
THANKS TO: Our editor Jan Cienski.
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