SYDNEY — Nearly 10 years ago, Australia thought it was on the cusp of a beautiful friendship with China: It was opening up its economy to Beijing, wanted to teach Mandarin in schools and invited the Chinese president to address parliament.
Now, that’s all over.
These days, Australia is buying up nuclear-powered submarines to fend off Beijing, barring the country from key markets and bristling at its relentless attempts to coerce Australian politicians and media.
In part, the head-spinning shift reflects rising global wariness of China’s increasingly pugilistic behavior.
But for Chinese President Xi Jinping, it also offers a remarkable example of how his relentless attempts to control the economic and cultural climate overseas can rapidly boomerang — even in a country receptive to Beijing’s overtures. Instead of bullying Australia into submission, Xi’s “wolf warrior” tactics simply pushed Australia right back into its traditional military nexus, with the U.S. and U.K., costing Beijing a potentially valuable partner in the region.
Here’s how things turned sour so quickly.
2012: Australia foresees an ‘Asian Century’
When Xi took control of the Chinese Communist Party in 2012, the Australian government was in the midst of a geostrategic pivot.
In its 2012 Australia in the Asian Century White Paper, Canberra set out national objectives that included teaching Asian languages such as Mandarin in schools, strengthening trade relations with Beijing and opening up its economy to Asia.
The white paper was part of Australia’s broader move away from its colonial Commonwealth roots and position as America’s deputy sheriff in the Asia-Pacific, and toward carving out a role as a regional power in its own right.
Canberra naturally turned to Beijing, the largest player in the region — and then, as now, its top trading partner — for a landmark free-trade agreement and relationship reset.
Australia and China concluded negotiations for the trade pact in November 2014, with Xi invited to address a joint sitting of Australia’s parliament — an honor usually reserved for U.S. commanders in chief.
“We should increase mutual understanding and be sincere and trustworthy partners,” Xi told parliament, adding China and Australia were “not burdened by historical problems between us … We have every reason to go beyond a commercial partnership to become strategic partners who have a shared vision and pursue common goals.”
Some thought it was the dawn of a new age between the two countries. Spoiler alert: It wasn’t.
2013: Xi wants the ‘dominant position’
While Australia was pivoting to China, Beijing was orchestrating its own pivot: Xi had delivered a very different address to his countrymen before his speech to the Australian parliament.
In January 2013, shortly after becoming the chairman of the Communist Party and just months before becoming Chinese president, Xi laid out plans to make China a global superpower through economic and technological might.
“We must concentrate our efforts on bettering our own affairs, continually broadening our comprehensive national power,” Xi told his Communist Party comrades in the speech. The focus would be on “building a socialism that is superior to capitalism, and laying the foundation for a future where we will win the initiative and have the dominant position.”
That meant going after the Western alliance —with Australia as the weakest link. So while publicly promising sincerity and trust, Xi secretly sought to squeeze the island nation.
First came the cyberattacks, with Chinese state-linked hackers going after the Australian parliament, the country’s Bureau of Meteorology, the Australian National University and numerous others.
Then came attacks on Australia’s Chinese-language media, with reports of coercion, bullying and intimidation at any outlet daring to depart from the Communist Party line.
Reports emerged that China had reached deep into the Australian political establishment, seeking to steer policy in China’s favor. Investigations found Beijing-linked businesses were the largest sources of donations with foreign ties, and the money went to both sides of the political spectrum.
The financial intrusions rattled Australian politics. In 2017, Australian Labor Party Senator Sam Dastyari was forced to resign over his ties to Chinese Communist Party-linked donors.
Beijing sought control and influence in overt ways, too.
Later in 2017, China’s security chief warned Labor leadership the party would risk losing support among Australia’s Chinese diaspora community if it didn’t back an extradition treaty Beijing wanted.
And over the past 18 months, China hit Australia with a series of trade restrictions and tariffs in response to Canberra’s call for an independent investigation into the origins of the coronavirus pandemic, which emerged from the Chinese city of Wuhan.
Meanwhile, China was also building its military might in the region, making sweeping claims to the South China Sea and squeezing Hong Kong and Taiwan — moving southward toward Australia.
The combined effect drew from the entire “wolf-warrior” playbook, named after a popular Chinese action film.
And it backfired.
2021: Break-up complete
Australia, having once extended Beijing a hand of friendship, is now back in the arms of its old associates.
Earlier in September, Canberra announced a wide-ranging security partnership with the U.S. and U.K. The pact, dubbed AUKUS, comes amid a broader Australian attempt to pivot its economy away from China.
“The level of Chinese economic coercion and cyber espionage against Australia was once unimaginable, so our security agencies have learned to consider worst-case possibilities,” said Rory Medcalf, head of the National Security College at the Australian National University and author of “Indo-Pacific Empire.”
AUKUS, he said, “is an alignment made in Beijing.”
Under the new Anglo-American alliance, the U.S., U.K. and Australia have agreed to share advanced technologies with one another, including artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, quantum computing, underwater systems and long-range strike capabilities. Australia also abandoned a submarine deal with France worth more than €50 billion to acquire American nuclear-powered submarines instead.
“It’s a remarkable collapse in Australia-China relations and a massive deterioration in Australia’s security outlook that’s led to this outcome,” said Michael Shoebridge, a director at the influential Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) think tank, which receives funding from the Australian and other governments.
Xi “caused a trifecta of changes” that would have been unthinkable just a decade ago, Shoebridge said: A shift in Australian policy that deemed nuclear-powered technology too sensitive and expensive as recently as 2016; and a shift in U.S. and U.K. policy that allowed the two nations to share nuclear tech with each other only until recently.
“That’s a pretty radical, remarkable shift in three nations’ politics in just five and a bit years,” Shoebridge added.
Indeed, the change was percolating in 2016 when Canberra blocked bids by two Chinese companies to buy electricity distributor Ausgrid, citing national security concerns. Two years later, Australia fully banned Chinese tech giant Huawei from its 5G network.
Now, the federal government is considering stripping Chinese company Landbridge of its 99-year lease of the strategically crucial Port of Darwin — only six years after the regional government awarded the contract to the shock of then-U.S. President Barack Obama.
U.S. Marines regularly rotate through Darwin for training exercises, and Australia’s Defense Minister Peter Dutton earlier this year proposed expanding their numbers and forming a joint training brigade with Australian troops.
Dutton warned Canberra must be prepared for whatever lurks “on or below the horizon” amid growing tensions with China.
Where’s the EU?
When Australia tore up its submarine deal with France, President Emmanuel Macron’s instinct was to blame Canberra and Washington.
But what neither Macron — nor the EU leadership — mentioned was the economic and security threat China has posed to Australia in recent years.
It’s not that EU officials were oblivious to Beijing’s coercive tactics against Canberra. Australia’s Trade Minister Dan Tehan, visiting Brussels earlier this year at a time when trade talks were still on a good track, admitted Canberra was keen to have closer trade ties with the EU while facing intense economic pressure from Beijing.
“What I can say is, from an Australian point of view, what we’ve done is to stick true to our principles,” Tehan told POLITICO in April. “If that leads to consequences, where we might run into disputes with certain countries, then … we will put out our sovereignty first.”
France is now threatening to cut off trade talks between the EU and Australia, accusing Canberra of being an untrustworthy partner in the wake of AUKUS.
“The complete absence in the current media coverage of whether the seriousness of Australian security concerns were fully appreciated within French circles is symptomatic of a core European shortcoming,” said Alessio Patalano, professor of war at King’s College London.
It’s an omission that longtime observers find glaring.
“The systemic challenge of China hugely outweighs the relationship difficulties between France and Australia,” said ASPI’s Shoebridge.
Did Xi still win?
The fact numerous European leaders swiftly turned on Australia and the U.S. in the wake of the AUKUS announcement has some wondering whether Xi ultimately won out despite losing Australia’s goodwill.
According to Shoebridge, that’s a simplistic view. He argues once the dust settles, the EU, including France — will come back to the transatlantic table.
“I don’t think it will play much to China’s favor,” Shoebridge said. “The thing that will keep driving [the West] together are the actions of China under Xi.”
Shoebridge pointed to research that shows the collapse of public perceptions of China around the world.
“Now Xi has to face an Australia with accelerating military capabilities, up to and including nuclear submarines, brought about due to the direction he’s taking China,” he said.
Zoya Sheftalovich reported from Sydney. Stuart Lau reported from Brussels.
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