It’s never easy taking the measure of Europe’s high-flyers and divining which of them will be the 28 most powerful people shaping politics and policy next year. But looking ahead to 2024 was a particularly fraught endeavor, with two wars on Europe’s doorstep amid a cascade of unpredictable elections, surprise resignations, bombshell corruption investigations and backroom coalition deals leading to political assassinations and resurrections.

Who wields more power: the man who orders his troops to invade and subjugate a neighbor — and fails, taking hundreds of thousands to their graves in the process? Or the woman who keeps his coffers full and his troops equipped, allowing them to keep waging the surely doomed offensive? Can a lame-duck president be considered an unchained force to be reckoned with? Or is the fact that he must relinquish his throne to another enough to count him out as a has-been? Are the most powerful politicians those who craft legislation, or those who wreck it? And what of a humble MEP, living in exile in a Belgian backwater, who manages to emerge as a kingmaker in the EU’s fourth-largest economy?

This edition of the POLITICO 28 power ranking — our annual list of those who are driving debate and steering decisions in Europe — revolves around a central theme: Will Europe’s moderate forces succeed in driving back those on the fringes who threaten their hold on power? Or will their quest to maintain their grip see those in the center transform into the very extremists they seek to vanquish?

The list is rooted in the expertise of our newsroom and beyond — along with a dash of crystal-ball gazing — and it provides a snapshot of who looks set to shape politics and policy in this coming, crucial European election year. 

As in previous editions, we’ve split the ranking into three sections: The doers (those with executive power), the dreamers (those who represent an idea driving the debate) and the disrupters (those best placed to upend the game in unexpected ways). And as always, being included among the POLITICO 28 doesn’t amount to an endorsement or an award.

Last year, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen was a notable absentee from our list; in 2024, with an EU election looming and after an unprecedented consolidation of powers, she’s a firm favorite to secure a second term in the Berlaymont — if she wants one. Emmanuel Macron also makes a return as one of Europe’s top doers, as the unchained French president rams through a series of unpopular reforms, seemingly unbothered by his flatlining popularity. 

In a nod to today’s polarizing times, the list features not one, but two secessionists whose dream is to tear their countries apart. There’s Carles Puigdemont, the Catalan who has managed to secure an amnesty over an illegal 2017 independence vote — and perhaps even another shot at secession — in exchange for propping up Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez. And there’s Belgium’s Tom Van Grieken, who wants to turn Flanders into a breakaway state.

At the top of the POLITICO 28 sits the most powerful person in Europe. Last year, that was President Volodymyr Zelenskyy — a worthy choice, given he managed over the course of 2023 to get Ukraine’s foot in the doors of both the EU and NATO.

This year’s most powerful person encapsulates the existential battles being waged both literally and figuratively around Europe and beyond: As Poland’s presumed next prime minister, Donald Tusk is fighting for the soul of his nation, pushing to move it forward, while facing an opponent who wishes to pull it back. And in the process of reshaping his country, he is changing the landscape of power in Europe, too.

Check out the full POLITICO 28: Class of 2024.